Milltrust Alert – Selected Insights from the Emerging Markets

October 12, 2018

BY Alexander Kalis

Key Stories

Continuing trade wars between the U.S. and China, falling margins and reduced profits for U.S. corporations, and the end of central bank accommodative policies continue to impact global markets, and emerging markets in particular.

In Brazil, we have had a surprising election. Itaú Asset Management comment that in three weeks’ time we will know who the country’s new president is. It will be crucial during the remainder of the electoral race that the two candidates emphasize their commitment to the so-called macroeconomic tripod, i.e.: floating exchange rate, inflation targeting and fiscal balance. One should remember that the latter constitutes a big challenge, as the current legal framework gives the next president little margin for maneuver. Thus, the market will focus first of all on the next administration’s degree of commitment to the implementation of a possible reformist agenda, but also on the formation of the new president’s political coalition itself, as it will be crucial for the approval of reforms. Market moves tend to reflect greater or lesser uncertainty regarding this theme.

Key Soundbites

  • In India, we take view that markets would be driven by the movement of rupee and crude oil which has an important bearing and also measures taken by the RBI and the government to alleviate the liquidity in the NBFC system which is of paramount importance as they have emerged as a significant lender in the credit system in India. We would be looking at increasing the exposure in financials given the sharp correction in the last month by trimming our exposure in Information technology.
  • China to Pump $175 Billion Into Its Economy as Slowdown and Trade War Loom

Key Investment

Shakey’s Pizza Asia Ventures Inc., the franchise holder of Shakey’s Pizza restaurants in the Philippines, reported a net income of P762 million in 2017 earlier this year, up 14 percent from P669 million in 2016.

The net income was primarily driven by the sustained increase in revenues, successful store network expansion, and maintained profitability despite higher input costs.  The company posted a revenue of P7 billion, 17 percent higher year-on-year. For 2018, the company earlier announced its plan to open another 20 new stores in the Philippines, to bring its nationwide store count to 228 by end-2018.

Recently, the pizza chain sought to expand in the Middle East, ‘where it is leveraging on the large population of Filipinos’ for future growth, and opened its first of 10 outlets in Dubai.

Key Charts

Categories: News