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MILLTRUST INTERNATIONAL
 

Industry Musings by Brian Paxton: April 2025

May 21, 2025

BY Ananda

When I first started work, companies conducted careful cost benefit analyses including discounted cash flows before committing funds to a project. Now the tech giants spend billions on AI infrastructure with seemingly no clear idea of what returns, if any, will come from their investments.

People Change:
Researchers have developed a simple, cost-effective blood test that can detect Parkinson’s disease long before symptoms appear.
A study reported in Nature Medicine described a highly accurate blood test that diagnoses Alzheimer’s disease and measures the extent of dementia.
In 2021 an estimated 48,000 Brazilians aged 15 to 49 years died by homicide compared to the 25,000 who died from road injuries.

Climate Change and the Environment:
According to the American Lung Association, nearly 156 million American residents live in areas with unhealthy levels of soot or smog, 16% more than a year before.
 
According to Copernicus, the Arctic has warmed more than any other region of the world and by the 2010s it was 2.8°C hotter than in the 1940s. March was the fourth consecutive month in which Arctic sea ice reached a record low for that calendar period with ice cover 6% below average. In the Arctic, melting sea ice has amplified temperature increases as ice reflects sunlight, so having less of it leads to more warming. After the Arctic, Europe experienced the greatest heating, partly because it has experienced a rapid reduction in aerosols in the atmosphere.
 
According to the 2024 European State of the Climate report, deadly floods and storms adversely affected more than 400,000 people in Europe during its hottest year on record.
 
During March low-lying areas of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan experienced a five day heatwave with temperatures between 5C and 10C above pre-industrial levels, according to a study by World Weather Attribution.
 
Since January 2023, more than 80% of the world’s coral reefs have experienced bleaching due to rising ocean temperatures.
Every year, more than half of the global area burned by wildfire is in Africa but barely gets mentioned in the media.

Low Cost Renewable Energy:
A new report from Ember concludes that clean power provided more than 40% of global electricity generation in 2024. Heatwaves and the associated demand for air conditioning contributed to high growth in electricity demand. Renewable power sources added a record 858 TWh of generation in 2024, 49% more than the previous record of 577 TWh set in 2022. 80 countries generated more than 50% of their electricity from clean sources in 2024, including 47 countries that reached more than 75%.
 
According to the International Solar Energy Society, Sweden, Australia, Netherlands, Germany and Denmark are the leading countries for per capita solar and wind generation capacity. Global solar capacity has doubled every 3 years and wind every 6 years, while fossil  and nuclear capacity and generation remain static in recent years.
 
PNAS researchers have calculated that if just 3.2% of the 12 million hectares of American cropland dedicated to growing biofuels was instead covered by solar panels, then more energy usable would be produced than contained in the biofuels.
 
Global Energy Monitor reported that the world added just 44 GW of new coal capacity in 2024 compared to 585 GW of new renewable capacity.
According to the IEA, electricity demand from data centres worldwide is set to more than double by 2030 to around 945 terawatt-hours.
Meta signed a 25-year power purchase agreement to support the development of a 150 MW floating solar PV system in Singapore.
 
India plans to develop a 13 GW hybrid renewable energy park in Ladakh, combining solar, wind and battery storage systems.
American electrical utilities power companies have announced the closure or gas conversion of 9.4 GW of coal-fired capacity so far in 2025 with some of the units closed more than 60 years old.

Autonomous Electric Vehicles:
A new release of an electric car in China takes place every two days on average, with market leader BYD releasing 129 new models since 2020 with new features including free automated driving software, high speed recharging and a roof mounted drone, compared to 4 from Tesla with none of those features.
 
Vehicle sales by China’s BYD were 58% higher in 1Q25 than in 1Q24, while Tesla sales dropped 13%.
Tests in real-world driving conditions show that EV batteries may last nearly 40% per cent longer than previously thought.
 
CATL, the world’s leading battery maker, announced a new battery which can be charged at speeds which will add 520 km of charge in just 5 minutes.
CATL also announced that mass production of low-cost Nextra Sodium Ion battery cells, which use sodium ions and not lithium, will commence by year end (this could be a big deal if it makes lithium unnecessary).
 
The world’s biggest all electric ferry will conduct its first ocean trials in May.
 
Fortescue signed an agreement to charter an ammonia-powered vessel to transport iron ore from the Pilbara to China and the world.
Some 20% of Uber rides in Austin Texas use driverless Waymo autotaxis.
Wayve, the London-based autonomous driving start-up, will install its software in vehicles made by Nissan from 2027, its first deal with a global car­maker.

Mass Data Mining and Storage:
TDK is claiming a break­through in optical technology allowing data to be processed 10 times faster than with current electronics which uses electrical signal technology.
 
According to the ITU, the % of the world’s population using the Internet has increased from 25% in 2009 to 67% today.
 
Toshina Europe scientists have sent hacker-proof messages encrypted using quantum physics principles more than 250 km over a commercial telecoms network.