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MILLTRUST INTERNATIONAL
 

Industry Musings by Brian Paxton: January 2026

February 11, 2026

BY Ananda

People Change:

According to Our World in Data since 1961 the world population has grown 2.6 times and the food supply 3.5 times.

France recorded more deaths than births in 2025 for the first time in 80 years.

In 2025, the Chinese population fell by 3.39 million people as only 7.92 million babies were born, down from 9.54 million in 2024 and 16.5 million in 2015 and the lowest number since 1949.

Apple Store’s most popular paid app in China is called Are You Dead, a response to single-person households comprising 19.5% of the total in 2025 compared to 7.8% in 2005 according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Researchers are using AI to comb through Basecamp Research’s microbe database to generate potential therapies.

Food and Water:

Canadian researchers calculated that agrivoltaics has the potential to produce an additional 1,800 million tonnes of food worldwide in addition to generating electricity and reducing water demand and carbon emissions.

Research sponsored by the United Nations found 75% of the world’s population live in countries classified as water insecure; 2 billion live on ground that is sinking as aquifers collapse; and more than 50% of global food is grown in areas where water storage was declining or unstable.

Climate Change and the Environment:

Research published in the Lancet Planetary Health Journal recorded that every additional 200 electric vehicles added in California between 2019 and 2023 resulted in a 1.1% reduction in NO2 levels.

According to Aon, 2025 economic losses from natural disasters totalled US$ 260 billion, US$ 127 billion of which was insured. The global insurance industry experienced US$ 145 billion in underwriting losses from natural disasters.

Australia, the Congo Basin, Patagonia and South Africa have recorded major bushfires; Australia experienced a heatwave; severe flooding has been recorded in Eastern South Africa, Mozambique, New South Wales and New Zealand.

The EU’s carbon border adjustment tax has come into force.

Low Cost Renewable Energy:

Bloomberg NEF’s annual Energy Transition Investment Trends report calculated that global investment into the energy transition was a record $US 2.3 trillion in 2025, up 8% from 2024.

Research commissioned by Carbon Brief showed that coal fired electricity production fell by 1.6% in China and 3% in India in 2025. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese thermal electricity generation declined 1% in 2025, even as overall generation grew 6.8%.

Finnish research calculates comparable sodium-ion batteries will cheaper than lithium-ion by 2050.

Ten European countries are collaborating to build a 100 GW wind farm in the North Sea.

Although the first giga-scale battery project was only installed in 2021, forecasts are that 120 will be built in 2026.

Stanford university researchers forecast China to use 100% renewable energy by 2051, the USA by 2151.

China installed a record 315 GW of new solar capacity in 2025 so now renewable sources are larger than fossil power ones.

China has commissioned a 1 GW offshore floating solar plant incorporating energy storage and aquaculture.

According to IEA research, the global solar industry employed 7.24 million people in 2024.

Wood MacKenzie calculated the levelised North American cost of electricity to be US$ 50-53 per MWh for solar, US$ 72 for onshore wind, US$ 115 for natural gas and US$ 194 for coal.

Ember calculated that solar, which accounted for 61% of American electricity demand growth in 2025, increased by 27% and battery capacity by 133% in 2025.

The EIA predicts that American solar generation would increase by 46% and wind by 12% by end 2027.

According to the latest World Nuclear Industry Status Report, in 2025 only 4 new nuclear reactors went into service and 7 were shut down leading to 1.6 GW of growth. Construction started on 11 more reactors.

The IEA calculated that in 2024, some 80% of global oil and 90% of natural gas came from fields passed their productive peak.

Jeffries estimates American airlines could save US$ 580 million in fuel costs annually if the average passenger lost 10% of their weight.

According to the Global Energy Monitor 104 new coal fired plants of the 439 currently under construction, mostly in China, will go into production in 2026.

Autonomous Electric Vehicles:

UBS forecasts that Chinese electric vehicles exports will grow 50% in 2026 with ICE vehicle exports increasing just 4%. 2030 sales are forecast to be double those of 2024.

European EV sales in 2025 rose 30% over 2024 with pure EVs outselling ICE vehicles for the first time in December.

BYD sold 2.6 million pure electric vehicles in 2025, up 28% on 2024, while Tesla sold 1.64 million, down 9%.

Tesla is to scrap production of two EV models and invest US$ 2 billion in xAI as part of a move from EVs to robot manufacture.

Mass Data Mining and Storage:

Research by Common Sense Media shows 72% of American teenagers have used AI for companionship.

Iran is offering to sell advanced weapons systems with payments made in cryptocurrency to bypass traditional financial controls.